Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be the best pitcher alive right now. That’s who he is, and that’s why he got a 12-year, $325 million contract from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If that sounds hyperbolic to you, then you’re in the right place. You want to know who Yamamoto is and why he can afford guacamole at Chipotle like it’s no big deal. He never threw a pitch in the majors; How can he be the best pitcher alive?
To be honest, that “could be” is doing a lot of work. Gerrit Cole is a marvel, as is Zack Wheeler. You can scroll this list of the highest WARs over the last three seasons and choose your favorite as the “best pitcher alive”. Don’t forget about Roki Sasaki, another professional baseball pitcher from Nippon, you will be very, very, very, look and familiar with right now next season.
But Yamamoto is in the conversation, and that’s why he got the contract. We know Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
What did Yamamoto do in Japan?
OK, check this out: In 2017, he had a 2.35 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes. He had a winning percentage of .750. He struck out five batters for every batter he walked. He allowed 0.5 homers per nine innings pitched.
That was his worst season in the NPB. Furthermore, he was an 18 year old rookie. That partial season was probably his lowest point as a professional so far.
As for the rest of the seasons, his career ERA in the NPB is 1.72, if that gives you any idea. He has allowed 36 homers in his seven-season career. I’m less homer than eight different MLB Hall of Famers have been inducted into a season. In his 2023 season, Yamamoto pitched 171 innings and allowed two home runs. It’s not a typo.
His career numbers:
1.72 career ERA
.714 winning percentage
Record of 75-30 consecutive victories
9.2K/9
2.0BB/9
0.3 hours/9
Yamamoto turned 25 in August. So if the common preconception is that NPB is “Quadruple-A” in terms of talent, somewhere between the majors and Triple-A, what do you think a pitcher of potential age does? That when he’s about 20?
If you give him a $325 million contract, that’s what you do.
What does Yamamoto launch?
Pitches. Mostly good. The ones that get out, miss bats and prevent home runs.
But if you’re looking for details, our very own Eno Sarris has you covered and has taken a deep dive.
First notice its compact movement. He’s not bringing his right arm back completely, at least not yet. When he does, it’s to take it into Tim Lincecum territory, with the ball held toward the ground at a 90-degree angle.
山本由伸 159キロストレート＆129キロカーブ😵
今日最速の159キロで押し込んでから
外ギリギリにボールゾーンから下って来るカーブを曲げ込み見逃し三振 pic.twitter.com/K6nbXvcXur— tanaka13ver2023 (@tanaka13ver2021) October 28, 2023
But when plate time comes, the right arm quickly rises and turns into an ultra-short motion. He helps his mid-to-upper 90s fastball look even faster, as you can see from the emergency swing above.
This video does a good job breaking down how he gets that speed, as well as his other shots:
But let’s go back to Sarris’ article. Here are his notes on Yamamoto’s specific pitches, based on the StatCast numbers he posted in the World Baseball Classic:
• A four-seam fastball good enough to be a top-20 fastball in the majors
• The baddest splitter in the world
• An elite curveball
• A cutter that works well, but needs work
This is all very exciting, but it wouldn’t work as well if it couldn’t command where those shots are going. Good news, then: his command is a strange elite. He’s pumping out above-average fastballs, world-class splitters and elite curveballs where he wants to throw them, in general. The command stuff combination gives it the chance to be special, right from opening day.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Vicious Curveball. 😤
One of the most unique curveball versions. pic.twitter.com/1RENxkObab
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 12, 2023
Are there any good major league comparisons for Yamamoto?
Kevin Gausman is OK, thanks to the fastball-splitter combination, but breaks down when you get to the third pitch. Gausman offers a show-me slider, while Yamamoto can go to that elite curveball.
Roy Oswalt was a similar height (listed at 6-foot-0, but closer to 5-foot-10, with Yamamoto listed at 5-foot-10) and used command, control and great stuff to be one of the best pitchers of his generation. But he was a real sinker and not so much a bat-misser.
Masahiro Tanaka is slightly taller than Yamamoto, but had elite command and control, and the strength of his fastball combo is close to that offered by Yamamoto. However, height and reach are great separators between the two.
The correct answer is that no, there aren’t many good comparisons between the major leagues. Gausman is the most obvious, but only seven pitchers in the majors threw a splitter more than 15% of the time last season: Gausman, Alex Cobb, Taijuan Walker, Kenta Maeda, Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Ryan and Tony Gonsolin. None of them seem like a great comparison, though. Yamamoto it is Sui generisand comparisons aren’t very helpful. Gausman or Eovaldi are probably the best compositions, though. Considering both are former All-Stars with some Cy Young Award votes in the past, that seems like a good thing.
What is Yamamoto like as a person?
English-language reports from the Japan Times and Japan News see him as a player beloved by coaches and someone who adapted very well to NPB, despite being a teenager. He likes soft ice cream with soy sauce, which sounds great. He is part of the sweet-savory club, as everyone in the world should be. He wants to go to Brazil. His favorite food is squid. His favorite color is red, which could lead to a lot of unfounded rumors if the right person tweeted it.
Other than that, it’s kind of a hidden mystery. However, I found this TikTok of his and turned it into a GIF.
It seems important.
There are no guarantees in baseball, especially for pitchers. The arms tremble.
But when it comes to the type of bets teams should take? Here is one of the best you can find. He’s the age of a prospect with the profile of a future Hall of Famer, at least in Japan. Now that the teams are adept at analyzing pitches, pitch shapes, and all that jazz, they’ve come to the conclusion that this guy can pitch. And it represents a rare opportunity, considering his age. If you’re wondering who Yoshinobu Yamamoto is, don’t worry. Soon you will become very, very familiar.
(Top illustration by John Bradford/The Athletic; Photos by Lucas Stevenson and Eric Espada/Getty Images)
